SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 12/22/22

Summary The misery of 2022 has continued when it comes to investor sentiment. In the latest weekly AAII poll, bullish sentiment declined from 24.3% down to 20.3%. There hasn’t been a single week this year where bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 37.6%...

Summary Predicting the market is hard and often somewhat pointless. In this article, I focus on the biggest trends that are most likely to unfold. I believe we're in a prolonged sideways trend, with room for the market to fall to the low 3,000 range before the Fed is forced to pivot. ...

Summary If 2022 was about the Fed, 2023 is likely to be about the Fed and earnings. If the economy is heading for a recession similar to 2001 and 2008, the S&P 500 could fall below 3,000. If the economy is heading for just a period of slower growth, then the S&P 500 could he...

Summary Has the BOJ opened a can of worms for global monetary policy? Are central banks amid their huge target misses getting ready to shift their policy targets or monetary approaches? Inflation targeting is a black-box world - when central banks miss their targets, do those target...

Summary Last week the Fed reiterated its intention to snuff out inflation with still more hikes. But beginning about 6-8 months ago, when (not coincidentally) the Fed started to raise interest rates, inflation started to decline. In the housing market it's beginning to look like int...

Summary Inflation and central bank policy will likely continue being key focus points for investors. 2023 may not see a repeat of the frantic Federal Reserve activity that characterized 2022, but policy rates almost certainly still have further to rise. While 2023, with its challeng...

Summary This year is notable for bonds transitioning from a risk mitigant to a source of risk. One way to measure this is by tracking bond market volatility. Can yields and yield vol remain contained? Today, markets seem more aligned with the central bank’s intentions, and we...

Summary While falling commodity prices signal potential easing in inflation, it’s not necessarily a good sign. That’s because assets peak in a predictable order: bonds, stocks, and then commodities. Crude Oil has fallen to the lowest level in over a year, suffering a weekl...

Summary An all-time low in interest rates was reached when the Fed cut the fed funds rate to approximately zero in late 2008 in an effort to pull the economy out of the GFC. The Fed deemed the inflation “transitory,” it continued its policies of low-interest rates and quan...

Summary Return divergences were largely an outgrowth of the collapse in resource stocks. Amid the extreme risk-on/risk-off swings in sentiment spurred by the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine war, industry performances have been as polarized as they've ever been in a decade. The turbulent...