STPP News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ILN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A From 03/28/19

It is a convoluted world. Negative yielding bonds have climbed since September and now compose about 19% of the world's bond markets. Whoever, in their right minds, thought that a lender would pay the borrower? We now have over $10.07 trillion, up from $5.7 trillion in early 2018, of negativel...

By Peter C. Earle As the financial news networks have reported, the yield curve on government securities has inverted. When the yield curve inverts, which is to say when short maturity bonds yield higher than longer maturity bonds, there is a general view that a recession in the next 12-24...

By Ansh Chaudhary If you've been anywhere near major news since Friday, you would have seen that the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill and 10-year Treasury note turned negative. Known as a reliable recession indicator, investors have frantically been reading about what to expect in ...

On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield on the US 3-month treasury bill rose to 2.44% while the 10-year treasury yield moved below it to 2.38%. Since investors normally require higher yields for loaning money over longer terms than shorter, this 'inverted' yield spread signals a belief ...

Originally published on March 26, 2019 The news headlines explained the sudden jump in the S&P futures this morning by stating that "recession fears had faded." Just like that. Overnight. I guess the fact that the housing starts report showed a 9% sequential drop in housing starts last...

Getting long U.S. Treasury bonds has been a lucrative, contrarian move for Hedgeye subscribers for many months now. And while Hedgeye has been bullish on bonds since the end of September, the latest CFTC non-commercial futures and options contract data shows that Wall Street is—beli...

By Kevin Flanagan Last week, the big news was that the U.S. Treasury (UST) 3-month/10-year yield curve became inverted for the first time since 2007. It is certainly a noteworthy development in bond-land. As of this writing, the closely watched UST 2-year/10-year spread is still on the pos...

BlackRock notes that a yield curve inversion on its own doesn't trigger a recession, rather overly tight monetary policy is the real underlying cause of downturns. More news on: iPath U.S. Treasury Steepener ETN, iPath U.S. Treasury Flattener ETN, News on the U.S. economy, News on ETFs, ...

Don't waste your time worrying about things that are well worried. Well worried. One of the best turns of phrase I've ever heard in this business that has more than its fair share of adages and idioms. It is also one of the first - and best - lessons I learned from my original mentor in th...

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...