TBX News and Press, ProShares Short 7 10 Year Treasury From 06/12/24

2024-06-12 11:25:00 ET Summary A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend after a series of far too hot readi...

2024-06-11 10:50:00 ET Summary Consumers are experiencing the impact of rising inflation, particularly in the grocery sector, leading to a shift in consumer sentiment and the need to reassess budgets. Major retailers like Target and Walgreens are addressing consumer concerns by an...

2024-06-11 08:10:00 ET Summary We've been tracking a recession forecast model developed for the Federal Reserve Board by Jonathan Wright in 2006, which utilizes the U.S. Treasury yield curve as an input, while also factoring in the level of the Federal Fund Rate. In following mont...

2024-06-11 02:20:00 ET Summary As I have long said, the rest of the world is starting to cut rates in June – even if the Fed doesn’t follow suit. Since our Fed will now be lagging Europe in rate cuts, that means our rates will be higher, so “carry tradesȁ...

2024-06-10 22:15:00 ET Summary Because the stock market moved sharply and registered fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, many wonder if they have missed the boat. The issue is that we have three companies with $3 trillion (or very close to it) in market cap, and as...

2024-06-10 16:10:00 ET Summary We stay overweight U.S. stocks ahead of the election, yet are cautious on bonds given the fiscal outlook. We focus on long-term positives in India and Mexico. U.S. stocks notched fresh highs last week and are up nearly 13% this year. The Bank of Cana...

2024-06-10 11:05:00 ET Summary Nonfarm payrolls rose 272,000 in May, rebounding sharply from April’s gain, with a gain that was well above the consensus forecast. The Fed funds futures market this morning is pricing in modest odds that the first rate cut will now arrive at ...

2024-06-10 10:00:00 ET Summary The employment report released last Friday offered contradictory views of the state of the economy. If we look at some of the other labor data available to us, like the JOLTS survey that was also released last week, a picture of a softening labor mar...

2024-06-08 08:30:00 ET Summary If there are no cuts in 2024 (not our view), there is also little prospect for the 10yr yield to fall in a material manner. With real yields so low, inflation easing lower is not enough to justify lower yields. A key difference between the eurozo...

2024-06-08 01:35:00 ET Summary This week, the European Central Bank made the first decisive move in the transition away from monetary tightening. Recent strength in the Eurozone economy, including a higher-than-expected growth rate in hourly wages published today, suggests the lac...