UDN News and Press, Invesco DB USD Index Bearish From 04/27/24

2024-04-27 23:39:00 ET Summary The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 3.9 percent in March. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy p...

2024-04-27 22:50:00 ET Summary The first quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. Core PCE through Q1 eased to 2.9% from 3.2% in Q4. Until the year-over-year rates of change in core PCE and core C...

2024-04-27 06:25:00 ET Summary The 10yr minus 3mo Treasury rate (Yield Curve) is moving higher at a rapid pace as investors adjust their inflation thinking to being more persistent in the 3-4% range. 88% of portfolio managers in the Bank of America Fund Managers Survey last week b...

2024-04-27 06:10:00 ET Summary The release of 1st quarter 2024 Gross Domestic Product on April 25th surprised virtually all forecasters. The first three months of 2024 were characterized by a notable deceleration in US economic growth, marking an almost two-year low. Business ...

2024-04-27 05:50:00 ET Summary Quarterly inflation data surprised to the upside and led the market to brace for a very unpleasant MoM print today. Thankfully, it was due to upward revisions, primarily to January, with the March figure coming in line with initial expectations. ...

2024-04-27 04:10:00 ET Summary Elevated inflation and strong activity and jobs numbers have pushed market expectations for the timing of the first interest rate cut to December. We still see an opportunity for a September rate cut. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve will re...

2024-04-26 09:45:00 ET Summary Now that USD/JPY has glided through the 155 level, markets are now on high alert for Japanese FX intervention. Heightened sense of intervention is reflected in the FX options market, where one week USD/JPY traded volatility is now priced at 14.5%. ...

2024-04-26 05:10:00 ET Summary Markets have overreacted to Thursday's first quarter GDP stats; quarterly numbers are by nature volatile. The first estimate of Q1/24 GDP growth came in weaker than expected (1.6% vs 2.5%). On a quarterly basis, the deflator grew at a 3.7% annual...

2024-04-26 04:20:00 ET Summary The Fed recently released the March money supply numbers, and the story hasn't changed. M2 surged from early 2020 through early 2022, thanks to $6 trillion of deficit spending that was effectively monetized. The bulge in M2 rose to a high of $4.7...

2024-04-26 03:25:00 ET Summary US GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the first quarter of this year, less than half the 3.4% rate recorded in 4Q23, but core inflation was stronger, picking up from a 2% annualised rate to 3.7%. This implies upside risks to tomorrow’s ke...