USLB News and Press, Invesco Russell 1000 Low Beta Equal Weight ETF From 02/01/23

Summary The key feature of bubble symmetry is the entire bubble retraces in roughly the same time frame as it took to soar to absurd heights. At the peak and for some time after, bubbles are viewed as the natural order of markets and so they should continue expanding forever. But th...

Summary The massive fiscal expansion during COVID and the Fed’s accommodation of that spending via QE is what caused the spike in prices over the last 18 months. Spending fell back and has essentially been trending sideways since. Credit spreads are still below average and in...

Summary The Fed's inflation fighting credibility is really on the line this year. The peak in inflation was mid-2022, and it's fallen a lot in the last six months and likely to keep falling. The long end of the yield curve is held in check to some extent by the Fed's stubbornness at...

Summary The JNK ETF did not make another leg higher when the S&P attacked the 4100 level last week, which in my book is an indication that the stock market is a little ahead of itself. As we come up to the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the Fed needs to be reminded that the bigger part of t...

Summary A progress report on inflation: Inflation appears to have peaked, led by improvements in core goods prices and rate-sensitive sectors like housing. The policy focus has shifted to labor market normalization where early signs of progress are emerging. Is a soft landing in sight? ...

Summary Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is exception...

Summary The Biden Administration has stopped releasing one million barrels per day of light sweet crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so crude oil prices are expected to meander higher, despite a domestic glut of crude oil. Natural gas is more weather-dependent, but I expect...

Summary Investing can seem like an endless cycle of booms and busts. The correlations among European, Japanese, and emerging market equities as well as US high-yield bonds increased consistently since 1989. According to monthly return data, the average S&P 500 correlations to th...

Summary When I think about the lessons learned from 2022, I think the biggest lesson is valuations matter. I do think this is the most predicted recession that I've ever seen, certainly, in my career. Investors of all stripes, whether you're an asset allocator or a stock picker, I t...

Summary The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are essentially unchanged since late September as investors await more information about the economy. I think it is likely t...