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2023-04-06 08:30:00 ET Summary The March jobs data is expected to come out on April 7. The "Jobs Friday" report has proven to be a pivotal point in the stock market since November. If the job cycle continues stocks are likely to see a big drop in April. The jobs data has...
2023-04-05 12:51:31 ET Summary Deflation, not inflation is the real risk to the US Economy. The negative correlation between stocks and bonds demonstrates the bullish backdrop for fixed income especially at times of market stress. In this environment fixed income securities ar...
2023-04-03 13:10:00 ET Summary The first quarter of 2023 was viewed as victory for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite gaining +18.6% from the beginning of 2023. Many market prognosticators believe a new market phase will be led by different stocks than in the past. Fo...
2023-04-03 11:34:00 ET Summary The liquidity issues at the banks under duress do not appear to be that widely shared. A month ago, central banks faced a dilemma: how to fight inflation without undue damage to the economy and jobs. The approaching end of the hiking cycle may be...
2023-04-01 07:29:00 ET Summary Compared to February a year ago, consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, rose by 2.5%. This is solid growth. Consumers have been outspending inflation, largely due to the strength in spending on services while durable goods spending growth is stil...
2023-04-01 04:33:00 ET Summary On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index without food and energy products (“core PCE”) jumped by 4.6% year-over-year in February. Within the core PCE index, the PCE price index for durable goods rose just 0.7% year-over-year. ...
2023-04-01 03:40:00 ET Summary Why the U.S. consumer continues to spend. As inventories begin to shrink, will retailers regain their pricing power and margins? Why consumer resilience is helping to push the chance of an economic slowdown further away. Even wi...
2023-04-01 02:55:00 ET Summary The Economic Trend Index and Economic Momentum Index have recently dropped below their tipping points (50% and 0%, respectively). But this signal looks premature or wrong, based on various indicators that, in isolation, show the economy is still expa...
2023-04-01 02:15:00 ET Summary As the Fed tightens monetary policy, a banking crisis is historically the first evidence that something was breaking. Historically, once the Fed opens dollar swap lines, further monetary accommodations follow from rate cuts to “quantitative ea...
2023-04-01 02:02:00 ET Summary The March US jobs report may not be enough to stop the Fed from tightening another 25 basis points in May. The South African Reserve Bank surprised markets and raised rates by 50 basis points in March, taking the policy rate to 7.75%. China: the ...