USTB News and Press, USAA Core Short-Term Bond

2024-07-02 15:05:00 ET Summary The U.S. economy has not entered a recession despite the inverted yield curve, which historically predicted recessions, and this may be due to the relatively solid labor market setting. The monthly Employment Situation report and the initial jobless ...

2024-06-28 00:45:00 ET Summary During the second quarter of 2024, the Treasury market experienced heightened volatility as market participants tried to predict when the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between a high of 4.70...

2024-06-25 14:50:00 ET Summary The US 10-2yr Treasury yield curve has been inverted (two-year yields higher than ten-year) for 23 months since July 2022. An inversion in this spread has preceded the onset of every recession in the last 50 years by an average of 10 months. Mark...

2024-06-19 08:45:00 ET Summary AI may have important implications for other markets, notably fixed income, via the level of interest rates and bond yields. Turing to the impact of AI on productivity growth and yields, the overall effect on the labour market depends on whether the ...

2024-06-11 08:10:00 ET Summary We've been tracking a recession forecast model developed for the Federal Reserve Board by Jonathan Wright in 2006, which utilizes the U.S. Treasury yield curve as an input, while also factoring in the level of the Federal Fund Rate. In following mont...

2024-06-03 08:05:00 ET Summary It’s remarkable how strong the US economy has been, given the jump in interest rates. “Annual” returns for various fixed-income asset classes look pretty grim. A flat US jobs market, with a gradually rising unemployment rate ...

2024-06-01 03:00:00 ET Summary The Fed’s balance sheet shrunk by $118B in May - the largest amount since September of last year. When the Fed makes money, it sends it back to the Treasury. This has netted the Treasury close to $100B a year. International holdings have i...

2024-06-01 01:45:00 ET Summary The Treasury yield curve has been inverted between the 10-year and 2-year maturities for 500 days. Prior to the current inversion, which started in 2022, the 10-2 curve has inverted on four occasions since 1987. It still may be too early to concl...

2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method.  This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...

2024-05-24 09:45:00 ET Summary It is widely known that markets can be influenced by economic data releases that deviate significantly from consensus. We have quantified the impact of economic surprises on the US government bond market for different tenors, as measured by the quint...