VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 10/25/22

Summary Labor markets appear to be one of the primary determinants of Fed policy at the moment, with tight conditions and concern over a wage-price spiral driving higher interest rates. Labor markets may not actually be as tight as they appear on the surface though, and there is e...

Summary BoE holds the keys to the next gilt rally, if it can convince markets that a more dovish path is the right choice. The USD curve re-steepening on pivot hopes has run out of steam. Expect limited appetite to trade such a momentous policy change until next week’s ...

Summary On Friday, Treasury futures had a big reversal, closing up on the session after trading very weak in the overnight session, when you look at 10-year Treasuries. The 30-year bond had a very weak rebound and ended up down rather significantly on the day. This is a bit puzzli...

Summary We can’t prevent the government or the Fed from implementing inflationary policies, so we might as well get used to inflation and learn to profit from it. There are ways to profit from inflation without selling stocks. Not only can we buy shares of fossil fuel compa...

Summary The recession we see from Federal Reserve rate hikes eclipses any impact from U.S. midterm elections. We stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. Yields rose and stocks rallied off lows as markets mulled the scope of central bank rate hikes amid a “whatever it...

Summary The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 77 trading days, narrowing this week to a negative 28 basis points from negative 48 basis points last week. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill y...

Summary I have said for weeks that the Fed needs to slow the pace of its tightening campaign. Powell apparently decided last week that the market was taking things too far. Corporate earnings are being released for the quarter and, so far, they aren’t that bad. It w...

Summary Why we may be facing a calamitous recession vs a run-of-the-mill one. The Fed's next move on rates may be more important than others. Is it time to start reflecting on the impact rates are having on the real economy? The U.S. Federal Reserve has been ...

Summary Why supply chains are no longer behind our inflation troubles. As inflation pressures continue, the wisdom of rates hikes questioned. With U.S. core inflation still rising, odds grow of another big rate hike. The latest U.S. inflation data shows price...

Summary In 2022, many asset classes that were highly correlated on the way up are remaining highly correlated on the way down. The price of incremental risk in some fixed income markets has de-compressed. We believe the role of fixed income in diversified portfolios will be as...