The final 2023 policy meeting for the Federal Reserve will most likely end with the decision to hold interest rates where they are. As dull as this appears on the surface, it will not be a “ho-hum” moment for financial markets.
Market participants are looking for signs that cement the view that rate hikes are done with, and that they can expect rate cuts to begin in the first half of 2024. Any other interpretations coming from Wednesday’s Fed statement will be a huge disappointment and would likely spur sharp market reactions.
Economic analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to hold policy settings at this week’s meeting, accompanied by a more dovish tone in the statement. This would be “on message” to expectations that the Fed will deliver a first-rate cut at least by May.
“At the Wednesday meeting, we expect the Fed to take the initial steps in changing its communication from hawkish holds to dovish holds,” said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America.
Also Read: UAW’s Return To Work Pushes US Jobs Growth Higher, But Dark Clouds Hover Over Retail Sector
Data Supports More Dovish Expectations
Data since the November meeting has pointed to moderation in economic activity, slowing inflation and — Friday’s non-farm ...