2023-11-25 01:55:57 ET
Summary
- While there is hype in the AI market, there are several exceptional long-term investment opportunities.
- The AI market is growing rapidly, with North America and Europe leading the way, offering remarkable long-term sales and profitability growth potential for high-quality AI-tech firms.
- AI services and software are expected to have substantial growth, with global AI-related sales projected to reach over $2.5 trillion in the next decade.
- Several of my favorite AI companies should continue doing exceptionally well.
I'm thankful for my friends and family. I'm grateful for my kids. I'm grateful to my wife. I'm thankful for the fantastic life that I live. I'm thankful to America, the innovation, and AI. I'm grateful for the AI revolution, which should propel my top fund holdings very high.
Some call the AI market "AI hype." While it is a trendy slogan, there are some things we must realize. Every world-changing technology comes with an element of hype, and that's okay. It's more of a fact of life.
Think back to the internet revolution of the 1990s and all the hype that followed. Perhaps the "hype" was responsible for pushing prices to obscenely high levels, but the way up to the top was spectacular. Investors that rode the wave from the early 90s to 2,000 hopping off at the right time realized immense returns.
If the internet boom was a nine-inning ballgame, 1995 was around the bottom of the third inning, and the party didn't end until the market peaked and the ball game ended on March 2,000.
Of course, the AI boom will be different, but it could be similar to the dot-com boom. The AI revolution is only beginning. We could be around a similar point where the internet was in 1994 or 1995. Therefore, we likely have years of solid stock appreciation for the highest-quality, AI market-leading companies globally.
The Massive AI Opportunity
The overwhelming majority of the AI market is in North America and Europe, regions friendliest to U.S. tech firms. The massive AI market represents remarkable potential for the highest-quality, market-leading AI-tech firms.
Canada's artificial intelligence market was valued at $43.7 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $251.3 billion in 2032, an impressive CAGR of 19.2% from 2023 to 2032. Germany's AI market was valued at $25.7 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.6% from 2023 to 2032. We see a similar dynamic with Japan (CAGR of 21% to 2032), South Korea (CAGR of 21.1% to 2032), and other countries.
Software and Services Offering Massive Potential
We can break down the AI market into three primary segments: hardware, software, and services. Services account for a significant 40% of the global market share. Moreover, services will likely continue expanding rapidly, outpacing the growth of the software and hardware segments.
Therefore, we choose the best AI companies that preferably engage in all three segments. For instance, Nvidia ( NVDA ) offers the most advanced enterprise-ready AI solutions consisting of a supercomputer on the hardware side, its software to run the AI supercomputer, and its suite of services to complete the package.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) comes to mind if we look at hardware. Supermicro provides advanced hardware AI solutions that could continue leading the market.
We can look at Palantir (PLTR) on the software and services side. Palantir offers some of the best and most advanced AI software and services solutions and has an immense applicable market to expand its share in for many years.
AI Growth Is Astonishing
Global AI-related sales are set to skyrocket. While this year's sales should be around $540 billion, this figure may quintuple to more than $2.575 trillion in the next ten years. This dynamic represents stellar growth, and several high-quality tech companies with accelerated AI programs should capitalize on it by growing sales and substantially improving profitability in the future.
Remarkable AI Segment Growth Ahead
AI services should expand by about 18% to $208 billion this year. Moreover, this segment's revenues are set to skyrocket to nearly $1 trillion by 2032. We see a similar dynamic with software. AI-related software revenues could soar to almost $1T in a similar time frame. While AI hardware could lag slightly growth-wise, combined AI revenues could reach around $2.575 trillion in 2032.
These are massive annual sales, and solid growth will continue for many years. Many of the top AI companies should continue dominating their space, aggressively growing sales and profitability in the future. This dynamic should enable profitability growth to increase substantially, leading stock multiples to expand and enabling share prices to move significantly higher.
Top AI Stocks for The Next Decade
1. Nvidia - We know Nvidia as the " godfather of AI ." Nvidia has remarkable potential because of its market-leading GPU technology and leading data center/enterprise market position. Nvidia is the picks and shovels in the trenches, powering the foundation of the AI industry. Nvidia has explosive earnings momentum, and its stock is likely nowhere near its full potential.
NVDA 1-Year Chart
Nvidia's stock has been consolidating around the $400-500 zone for six months. While we could see a more significant pullback in the near term, Nvidia could go much higher after the transitory downdraft. Also, after the prolonged consolidation stage, Nvidia could move toward new ATHs in the $600-700 price range.
Nvidia - Far From Expensive
Next year's consensus EPS is about $20, but given Nvidia's tenacity for surpassing consensus estimates, my estimate is $22.50. This suggests Nvidia trades around a 21.5-forward P/E. This valuation is cheap because of Nvidia's leading AI position, sales, and profitability growth potential. This dynamic makes Nvidia one of the best buys in the AI space.
Nvidia: 2024 year-end price target range: $700-1,000
2. Palantir - Palantir is the market leader in AI solutions for optimizing business operations globally. Almost any government agency and private enterprise can benefit from Palantir's comprehensive AI solutions. Therefore, Palantir should continue growing faster than the market expects. This dynamic should lead to better-than-expected profitability and a considerably higher stock price in future years.
PLTR 1-Year Chart
Palantir had a monster rally, tripping in a short time frame. Now, the company's stock has consolidated for about six months. Palantir is likely seeing up to go higher. After a brief pullback phase, Palantir should move for the $25 level.
Revenue and Earnings Estimates Probably Too Low
Revenue estimates have come down a lot during the recent transitory economic downturn. While consensus figures imply a revenue growth of about 20%, Palantir could achieve higher ned sales estimates, delivering 25-30% growth instead. Moreover, Palantir has a remarkably long growth runway and could continue expanding sales at solid double-digit levels for many years. Additionally, Palantir could become more profitable than consensus estimates imply.
Palantir's EPS Likely To Go Much Higher
While the market anticipates robust EPS growth, Palantir could become more profitable even quicker. We could see EPS around $1 in 2025/2026, implying Palantir may trade around 25 forward P/E multiple here.
Palantir: 2024 year-end price target range: $30-40
3. Super Micro Computer - Supermicro is a leading AI player on the hardware side. SMCI products and services should continue to garner high demand as the global transition to more advanced servers incorporating AI proceeds.
SMCI - One Of The Cheapest AI Stocks
SMCI trades below 14 times next year's expected earnings, making it one of the cheapest AI stocks. Moreover, SMCI's EPS could continue surpassing analysts' figures, and its multiple could expand, leading to a considerably higher stock price in future years.
SMCI: 2024 year-end price target range: $400-550
4. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is a leader in GPU technology, essentially making the AI-GPU segment a double space. AMD's high-power chips can compete with Nvidia's. Also, AMD has CPU-AI potential and will likely have enormous growth ahead.
AMD's Revenue Growth To Increase
AMD's revenue growth should improve considerably due to increased AI demand. Also, AMD is expanding its AI-CPU influence in the PC/gaming market excellently. AMD's revenue growth could jump to around 20% in future years, leading to higher profitability and a considerably higher stock price.
AMD: 2024 year-end price target range: $180-225
5. Tesla ( TSLA ) - Despite its primary focus on producing cars, Tesla is one of the most significant AI companies. It has an AI and robotics program, making some of the most advanced chips in the AI industry.
TSLA 1-Year Chart
Tesla's stock has been consolidating for months and could go higher as the transitory economic slowdown concludes. Tesla's margins have been compressed due to inflation and lower car prices. However, the strategy should pay off, and Tesla's profitability should continue increasing considerably over the long run.
Tesla: 2024 year-end price target range: $350-450
6. Meta Platforms (META) - While I don't own Meta now, I rode the stock from below $90 to more around $200 recently. It is a leader in the Metaverse concept, virtual and augmented reality and much more. Moreover, Meta is one of the most significant global companies with massive long-term AI potential . It's also a global social media leader with a monopoly-like structure in the social networking space.
META 1-Year Chart
Meta's technical image remains highly constructive here. Meta successfully retained $280-300 support. Now, the stock could break out above $350 to new ATHs.
Meta was a strong buy when trading around a 12-15 P/E multiple. However, due to its rapid price appreciation, Meta now sells around 20 times forward EPS estimates.
While this valuation is elevated relative to Meta's recent P/E multiple, it's still inexpensive because of Meta's explosive revenue and earnings growth potential. Meta could hit $23 in EPS in 2025, implying its current price tag is inexpensive here.
Meta: 2024 year-end price target range: $425-475
For further details see:
6 AI Stocks I'm Thankful For