It is hard to look at much of the recent economic data and not come to the conclusion that a V-shaped recovery seems to be unfolding. Certainly, many of the reports are coming off depressed levels; however, a sharp recovery is occurring nonetheless. Thursday's nonfarm payroll number is another example with a month-over-month increase of 4.8 million versus a consensus expectation of 3.0 million increase. The labor market still needs healing, but payrolls are up 8 million in two months.
Stating the obvious, but the stay-at-home mandates and business shutdowns caused a severe economic contraction,