This expansion has run for 120 months from the 2009 trough, a tie for the longest expansion with 1991 – 2001 (see the NBER’s data since 1854. The Fed’s GDPNow algorithm estimates Q2 GDP at a still-healthy 2.0% SAAR. All expansions end in recessions. When will that happen, assuming Trump does not start one?
Indicators show our future
Professional economic forecasters see steady growth for the next 12 months. Unfortunately, economists have little ability to predict recessions. Surveys of economists’ consensus forecast have never successfully predicted a recession. For example, look at the predictions