Introduction
A few weeks ago, I wrote that it looked like we had a “mini-recession” in the December-February time frame, in which case we should expect a rebound thereafter.
We got data apparently confirming both of those points this morning, contrasting recent weakness with a strong rebound.
The good news and the not-so-good news
Let’s start with the positives.
First of all, we had yet another new 49-year low in initial jobless claims, at 195,000 this morning:
Since in spring of 1969 there were weeks of less than 180,000 claims, that’s why we keep *