Bank OZK's (OZK) earnings plunged by 89% sequentially in the first quarter due to a surge in provision expense amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Earnings in the remainder of the year will likely decline on a year-over-year basis, but improve over the first quarter. High provision expense will be the major contributor to an earnings decline this year. Provision expense will likely remain elevated for another quarter because the worsened economic outlook will require an increase in loan loss reserves. Moreover, further compression of the rate-sensitive net interest margin, following the federal funds rate cuts, will