2024-01-26 10:01:20 ET
Summary
- BITF's production decline is a fundamental problem, primarily caused by losing its share in the Bitcoin Network, despite small expansion efforts.
- Data shows that when BITF's share in the network increased/declined in the current quarter, BITF's production in the following quarter also increased/declined.
- When compared to other miners like RIOT and CLSK, BITF could lose even more network share over the coming quarters.
- The upcoming halving cycle could see aggressive consolidation of the mining sector while BITF seems to be on the losing side.
- Although BITF is not for us, our ideal entry price for BITF will be at least 20% below its $270mil adjusted NAV.
Introduction
It is always nostalgic whenever we look at Bitfarms (BITF). How times have changed, from being our number 1 pick to being relegated from our portfolio entirely. In one of our theses published in Oct 2022 , we suggested that BITF was investable below the $137mil market cap. Just a month later in November, investors were presented with that exact entry opportunity that has asymmetric upside potential. Another 2 quarters later, our 200% return base-case target was realized even though Bitcoin has not recovered up to the price level expected....
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For further details see:
Bitfarms: Slow And Steady Lose The Race