- Market participants are underestimating COMP360 probabilities of success in rNPV-models.
- There is 2-3x upside in the event of full FDA-approval in the U.S., factoring in potential future share dilution.
- Ancient and historical use of 5-HT2A agonists in the 1950s to 1970s and shared mechanism of action skews probabilities of success much higher.
- The potential issue of utilizing a dosing protocol of 25mg of COMP360 in severely treatment-resistant individuals could be too weak for effect.
- It is loss-making for the foreseeable future, and periods of volatility are expected since biotechnology is interest-rate sensitive.
For further details see:
Compass Pathways: rNPV Probabilities Of Success Are Underestimated