- The notion that technology, war, and asset prices are both closely connected and cyclical, as proposed most famously by Nikolai Kondratiev and Joseph Schumpeter, is revisited.
- The establishment of a central bank-dominated monetary system changed the patterns identified by Kondratiev and Schumpeter rather than eliminating them.
- This change in patterns has led to mischaracterizations of the nature of innovation waves and market waves, and the ideas of Kondratiev and Schumpeter themselves.
- Patterns in per capita rates of deaths in global conflicts, commodity prices, and the earnings yield appear to be closely connected, largely confirming both Schumpeter and Kondratiev's observations.
- In Part 3, we will compare these Kondratiev Waves with Schumpeterian innovation waves over the last century.
For further details see:
Conjunction And Disruption: Technology, War, And Asset Prices - Part 2