- Innovation surges have historically occurred near secular low-points in real commodity prices, equity yields, and global political instability.
- High growth in disruptive innovations tends to occur as commodity prices, equity yields, and global instability rise.
- Growth rates in the diffusion of disruptive innovations tend to suddenly drop near the peak in commodity prices, equity yields, and global instability.
- Mass adoption of disruptive innovations tends to occur as commodity prices, equity yields, and global instability decline.
- These points are demonstrated using historical diffusion data for automobiles, radios, TVs, personal computers, smartphones, and other consumer durable goods.
For further details see:
Conjunction And Disruption: Technology, War, And Asset Prices - Part 3