2023-09-18 13:11:12 ET
- Energy is the easy leader among S&P sectors in Monday's trading as Brent crude oil approaches $95/bbl, and traders and analysts are increasingly talking about when, not if, prices will hit $100 .
- November Brent crude ( CO1:COM ) +0.5% to $94.56/bbl and October WTI crude ( CL1:COM ) +0.8% to $91.54/bbl, as production cuts led by Saudi Arabia and Russia helped drain inventories as global consumption has held firm.
- The Brent and WTI benchmarks have climbed for three straight weeks to touch their highest levels since November and are on track for their best quarterly gains since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Q1 2022.
- ETFs: ( NYSEARCA: XLE ), ( XOP ), ( NYSEARCA: USO ), ( BNO ), ( UCO ), ( SCO ), ( USL ), ( DBO ), ( DRIP ), ( GUSH ), ( USOI ), ( NRGU )
- Among the day's top performing oil and gas stocks: HF Sinclair ( DINO ) +2% , Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ) +1.7% , Valero Energy ( VLO ) +1.3% , SLB ( SLB ) +1.2% , Halliburton ( HAL ) +0.9% , Phillips 66 ( PSX ) +0.9% , Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) +0.8% .
- The strength is being led by the physical markets, such as Azerbaijan's flagship Azeri Light crude, which was trading near $100/bbl Friday as strong profits for turning crude into diesel mean processors are paying big premiums for grades that produce the fuel.
- The price of Nigerian crude Qua Iboe topped $100/bbl Monday, according to Reuters, and Malaysian crude Tapis reached $101.30/bbl last week.
- Qua Iboe and some other crudes priced against Brent now trade above $100/bbl because they are based on the price of dated Brent plus a cash premium, currently assessed at ~$4.25/bbl.
- Geopolitics and technical trading "could push oil over $100 for a short while," Citigroup analysts including Ed Morse said Monday, but "we continue to see progressive loosening on the horizon."
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Crude oil extends gains, with some physical crude already touching $100/bbl