Thesis
If the U.S. economy slumps into recession in the next, say, twelve months, it will have been highly and widely expected.
There has been chatter about recessions on and off on the CNBC and Bloomberg TV networks, when the market is falling and anchors pause from their regular bullishness to hear out the cases of David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, or David Stockman. This past month, recession forewarnings appeared on the front pages of several major non-financial publications such as the Washington Post. Major news networks are discussing the potential of a recession to tank