- The fundamentals for lumber, like a lot of commodities, had been favorable. Supply bottlenecks and persisting pandemic plight would limit how much production could make it to market, inelasticity taken for granted as somewhat permanent/durable, thereby constantly susceptible to what otherwise would be normal disruptions.
- Demand has been a complete afterthought, particularly with CPI rates running to 40-year highs. It was widely believed the only price risk pertained to the supply aspects, since demand was assumed always going there, so much inflation-y hotness running rampant.
- The Fed didn’t kill inflation and recovery with just two rate hikes (thus far). The fragile economy never recovered, and finally the negative pressures from general supply shock-driven prices went one step too far.
For further details see:
Demand Wasn't Supposed To Be The Problem