2024-04-30 10:34:49 ET
Summary
- Devon Energy's share price has appreciated 28% since my last analysis.
- Q1 results will be held back by weather impacts and 1st half weighted CAPEX spending.
- The easy money has been made with DVN. I encourage investors to invest counter-cyclically, below $50/share.
- The second half of 2024 has the potential to have significant improvements in FCF.
Thesis
Devon Energy ( DVN ) is scheduled to release Q1 results on May 1st, 2024. Investors may be disappointed with the results against strong market expectations resulting from a healthy crude rally throughout the quarter. Now that crude prices have stabilized in the low $80/barrel range, investors may be expecting more.
Devon should still provide positive free cash flow, but the results will be tempered by extreme winter weather in North Dakota and a CAPEX program that is heavily weighted toward the beginning of the year. I project Q1 results to still yield a 4%-5% annualized total yield for investors....
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Devon Energy: Expecting A Light Q1 Earnings