- Early estimates of Mulan had Disney hitting a walk-off grand slam, with revenues that would have been near Endgame levels.
- The data itself was accurate, though how many people interpreted it was not.
- My analysis shows that Disney's Mulan gamble has almost certainly failed, at substantial cost.
- Initial "box office equivalent" estimates failed to account for several qualifying factors, including mix shift, TVOD cannibalization, and marginal costs.
- Disney may have lost as much as over $100 million. The company has already made it clear it won't be returning to PVOD with another blockbuster anytime soon.
For further details see:
Disney's Mulan Estimates Crash Back Down To Earth: Losses May Have Been $150 Million