2024-07-11 09:00:00 ET
Summary
- Markets started the 2nd half of 2024 strong, with S&P up 1.69% and Nasdaq up 3.29%.
- Earnings season approaching, with the banking sector first, followed by the Magnificent Seven.
- Dividend Harvesting Portfolio hits all-time high, generating $44.41 in dividend income in the first week of July.
Even though it was a short trading week over the July 4 th holiday, the markets kicked off the 2 nd half of 2024 with a bang. The S&P 500 increased by 1.69%, while the Nasdaq appreciated by 3.29%. There is no question that the bull market is alive, but if it remains well is another story. We're headed into earnings season with the banking sector on deck and everything else to follow. With the Nasdaq up 33.07% over the past year and the S&P up 25.19%, I believe the future of the rally, at least in the short term, will live or die with the Magnificent Seven. The next several weeks will be interesting, as Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report on the 23 rd, while the rest of the Magnificent Seven will finish out July and run into August. Right in the middle of earnings season, the Fed will meet again, and CME Group is projecting that there is only a 6.7% chance that the first rate cut will occur. The future forecast is gearing up for a September rate cut, with only a 22.4% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. I think that the Fed is making a big mistake sticking with the higher for longer mantra as the unemployment rate continues higher. The Fed has a dual mandate, and since 1948 , every time unemployment has increased by 1%, we were either already in a recession or a recession immediately followed. I think we're going to get a rate cut before the November election, but the real question is whether the Fed should hold out a little longer before taking the first step. Either way, I am a long-term investor, and I will be adding to the Dividend Harvesting Portfolio, no matter what happens. Ultimately, I think the market will be a little choppy heading into the middle of earnings season, and the combination of the Magnificent Seven and the FOMC meeting will have a lot to do with the future trajectory of the market....
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Dividend Harvesting Portfolio Week 175: $17,500 Allocated, $1,566.24 In Projected Dividends