Chief Strategy Officer market observations. Last week, EGLE's CSO highlighted the balanced dry bulk market one month into the new year. While down 23% versus December, the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) average of ~$20k/day in January is a solid data point compared to the past. January is typically a weak month, and seven out of the last ten years the BSI ended the year higher than where it started. While a pickup in volatility was noted, the forward FFA curve is close to ~$22.5k/day, which suggests a well-balanced dry bulk market.Favorable Dry Bulk Outlook Intact, Albeit with Volatility. While overall TCE rates dropped recently due to weather disruptions and seasonality and the forward cover is low, our outlook remains favorable. Volatility is likely to continue, and seasonality should be expected. At the same time, the order book remains muted, and the January 1, 2023 implementation of new carbon emission regulations (EEXI) could trigger slow steaming that effectively lowers supply.No change to 2021 EBITDA and dividend estimates. Forward cover of 75% of 4Q2021 days booked at more than $32.0k/day creates a solid base and the quarter should be strong even though the BSI weakened over the course of the quarter. Our EBITDA estimates are $90.9 million in 4Q2021 based on TCE rates of $30.5k/day. Our 4Q2021 dividend estimate is $2.11/share, or 30% of our 4Q2021 EPS estimate of $7.02/share. Operating results will be out AMC on March 3rd and management will host a 8am EST call on March 4th.1Q2022 Appears on track. Based on the BSI average of ~$20k/day for January and FFAs of ~$21.0k/day in February and close to $27k/day in March, our 1Q2021 EBITDA estimate of $60.2 million based on TCE rates of $21.5k/day appears reasonable. Our 1Q2022 dividend estimate is $0.96/share, or 30% of our 1Q2022 EPS estimate of $3.06/share.Recent rebound, but still good opportunity. Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $84/share. The recent successes include record operating results, a global refinancing and the shift to variable dividends. Plus, an expanded fleet positions EGLE to capitalize on attractive, albeit volatile, dry bulk market fundamentals. We viewed the drop of 10% in 4Q2021 as unwarranted and believe that the risk/reward profile remains very attractive even though the stock has rebounded with a gain of ~7% in 1Q2022. Read More >>