Favorable Dry Bulk Market Outlook Intact, Albeit with Volatility. While overall TCE rates have dropped recently due to weather disruptions and seasonality and the forward cover is low, the outlook remains favorable. Volatility is likely to continue, and seasonality should be expected. At the same time, the order book remains muted, and the January 1, 2023 implementation of new carbon emission regulations (EEXI) could trigger slow steaming that effectively lowers supply.Well Positioned Entering 2022. Several milestones were achieved over the past five years and the moves enhanced the competitive position moving into this year. The fleet renewal program improved the fleet profile, the commercial strategy has consistently outperformed the market, the capital structure has been simplified with a global refinancing in 4Q2021, access to equity capital markets has improved, and moves to enhance shareholder value have been implemented, including the new dividend strategy that targets a minimum payout 30% of quarterly net income.Fine tuning 2021-2 EBITDA and dividend estimates. Forward cover of 75% of 4Q2021 days booked at more than $32.0k/day creates a solid base and the quarter should be strong even though the BSI weakened over the course of the quarter. Our EBITDA estimates are $107.4 million in 4Q2021based on TCE rates of $30.5k/day. Our 4Q2021 dividend estimate is $2.11/share, or 30% of our 4Q2021 EPS estimate of $7.02/share. Please note that we estimate that the hedging program has a positive $8.5 million in 4Q2021. Our 2022 EBITDA estimate is $282.1 million based on TCE rates of $23.2k/day. Our 2022 dividend estimate is $4.74/share, or 30% of our 2022 EPS estimate of $15.55/share.Other shareholder friendly moves ahead? We applaud that the new dividend strategy and believe that other moves are likely, including buy backs, given the improved financial position.Recent weakness creates good opportunity. Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $84/share. The recent successes include record operating results, a global refinancing and the shift to variable dividends. Plus, an expanded fleet positions EGLE to capitalize on attractive, albeit volatile, dry bulk market fundamentals. We view drops of 10% in 4Q2021 and 9% in 1Q2022 as unwarranted and believe that the risk/reward profile remains very attractive. Read More >>