EchoStar ( NASDAQ: SATS ) was downgraded by Raymond James on Friday, as the investment firm said a lack of a near-term catalyst over the next 6 to 12 months would keep shares rangebound.
Analyst Ric Prentiss lowered his rating on EchoStar ( SATS ) to outperform from strong buy, while also cutting the price target to $27 from $57. Prentiss said that under new CEO Hamid Akhavan, EchoStar ( SATS ) is working on three strategic areas, including possibly monetizing its S-Band, but this would be "well over a year away."
In the interim, Prentiss noted that demand for consumer broadband is still "strong" and the company is managing its "limited capacity and costs" in an effort to maximize its output ahead of the Jupiter 3 satellite launching in the second-quarter of next year and going into service the following quarter. Only then, is EchoStar ( SATS ) expected to resume growing subscribers, revenues, EBITDA and free cash flow.
"But for now, subscriber numbers will be weak, and capex and opex will precede revenue growth," Prentiss wrote.
As such, Prentiss lowered his Adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2022, 2023 and 2024 to $640M, $510M and $602M, down from $642M, $586M and $704M.
EchoStar ( SATS ) shares were down roughly 4.5% in early trading on Friday.
The analyst also noted that sotck buybacks in the third-quarter were just $11M, compared to $377M from the fourth-quarter of 2020 to the second-quarter of 2022, with EchoStar ( SATS ) saying it will not be "active in the market" as it sees larger growth opportunities and wants to maintain cash levels.
"While these initiatives could be interesting, it removes one of the short-term catalysts," Prentiss added. "All in all, we believe the valuation (a shockingly low [less than] 3x EV/EBITDA) remains an attractive entry point with limited downside, especially considering $1.6B in cash and negative net debt, but see greater near-term potential returns elsewhere."
Delving further into the comapny's strategic goals, Prentiss noted that in addition to the upcoming launch of the J3 satellite, organic investments and small acquisitions to help monetize J3 are important.
Longer-term, more transformative opportunities include bigger deals, as well as commercialization of its S-Band spectrum, which Prentiss posited that a direct to handset satellite or hybrid solution, similar to what has taken place between SpaceX and T-Mobile ( TMUS ) and Apple ( AAPL ) and Globalstar ( GSAT ) and Iridium ( IRDM ) and its partner have already done.
Echostar ( SATS ) reported third-quarter results on Thursday that were mixed compared to Wall Street estimates .
Analysts are wary on EchoStar ( SATS ). It has no rating from Seeking Alpha authors, while Wall Street analysts rate it a BUY . Conversely, Seeking Alpha's quant system, which consistently beats the market, rates SATS a HOLD .
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EchoStar downgraded by Raymond James on lack of near-term catalysts