- My reading of the current environment is relatively clear; both the longer term and shorter-term leading growth indicators are pointing toward the heightened possibility of slowing cyclical growth.
- As a result, these downward trends suggest investors ought to be rotating out of the reflation and cyclical trades and into the defensive counterparts, or reducing risk entirely.
- Beginning with the longer-term leading data, almost all of the variables I monitor peaked earlier this year and are now rolling over or trending downward. My favourite of which is the China credit impulse.
For further details see:
Economic Growth Is Slowing And What This Means For Investors