2024-03-13 09:23:16 ET
Summary
- Acadia's new drug, Daybue, shows promising initial sales, but pimavanserin failed in schizophrenia trials, impacting stock value.
- Nuplazid's patent protection may shield it from generic competition until at least 2030, with steady sales growth reported.
- Daybue faces challenges with patient retention due to side effects, yet remains the only FDA-approved treatment for Rett syndrome.
- I am maintaining my Buy rating on Acadia stock due to Daybue's potential, despite risks from generic competition and macroeconomic factors.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals: From Sky-High to Grounded Realities
My last look at Acadia Pharmaceuticals ( ACAD ) followed the development of their new drug, Daybue, for the treatment of Rett syndrome. Daybue posted a strong entry with $90 million of revenue in its first six months on the market. Back then, retention was 81% four months after drug initiation. I noted that Daybue was forecast by some analysts to do as much as $1 billion in peak annual revenue. The stock shot up nearly 50% immediately following my Buy recommendation in December, but has since dropped back to earth following another quarterly earnings report and schizophrenia data for pimavanserin, which is FDA-approved as Nuplazid for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease psychosis. At the time of writing, Acadia's stock is down 20% due to the clinical trial failure, and the following article reassesses Acadia in light of these developments....
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For further details see:
Evaluating Acadia's market Position Following Pimavanserin's Clinical Setback