Fiscal Flows, Bank Credit, The Fed And The Real Estate Cycle For 2025

2025-01-14 11:31:16 ET

Summary

• December 2024's US sectoral flows suggest weak market performance in January 2025, with fiscal velocity and acceleration both negative, indicating potential market stagnation or decline.
• Seasonal factors and fiscal milestones, including a large federal tax collection in mid-January, contribute to expected market weakness until mid-March.
• The potential privatization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could drive their stock prices higher, aligning with the final explosive phase of the real estate cycle.

This article examines the US sectoral flows for December 2024 to assess their likely impact on markets as we advance into January 2025. It also includes an impact assessment of major Fed and White House decisions and policies on risk asset markets. This is all set within the framework of the US real estate/credit cycle.

The table below shows the sectoral balances for the US, which are produced from the national accounts....

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

For further details see: