2024-07-25 16:10:32 ET
Summary
- Second Quarter 2024 GDP surprises at 2.8%, above consensus estimates of 2.0%.
- Core PCE at 2.9% dampens hopes for a rate cut, indicating potential inflation concerns. With inflation, there is a heightened risk of “stagflation”.
- An increase in private inventories may signal a slowdown in consumer spending, potential for stagflation in the economy.
- The unemployment rate, at 4.1% is dangerously close to the threshold that triggers the Sahm Rule Indicator of recession.
NEW YORK (July 25) - Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, for the Second Quarter of 2024 ("2024Q2") printed this morning at a surprising 2.8% rate of annual growth. Consensus estimates had put the figure at 2.0%. The print was nearly double the highest point of our range of our last prognostication of growth, 1.25% (+/-25 bps) and well above the top boundary of the "Blue Chip" consensus tracked by the St. Louis Fed....
Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
For further details see:
GDP Prints At 2.8%, But A Recession Signal Looms