Robust 4Q2021 Results and Dividend Slightly Short of Estimates Due to Higher Costs. Reported EBITDA of $102.3 million was short of our EBITDA estimate of $109.2 million due to lower TCE rates and higher operating expenses. TCE rates of $35.2k/day were $800 below our estimate of $36.0k/day. Based on total ownership days and versus our estimates, operating costs of $5,766k/day were $666 higher and G&A expenses of $1,755/day were $417 higher. As a result, the 4Q2021 dividend of $0.67/share was below our estimate of $0.80/share.Fine tuning 2022 EBITDA and dividend estimates. Forward cover of 87% of 4Q2021 days booked at ~$24.2k/day creates a solid base and the quarter should be solid even though the BCI and BSI weakened over the past quarter before rebounding ahead of Chinese New Year. Our 2022 EBITDA estimate increases to $261.5 million from $249.4 million based on TCE rates of $24.5k/day, but our 2022 dividend estimate of $3.28/share remains in the previous range due to higher capex, including dry docking and BWTS costs.On Solid Footing and Well Positioned to Ramp Up Dividends. As reinforced on the quarterly call yesterday, several milestones were achieved over the past year and the moves enhanced the competitive position moving into this year. The renewal program has enhanced the fleet profile, the capital structure was simplified, financial leverage was reduced, and dividends are ramping up.Other shareholder friendly moves ahead due to improved financial flexibility? We applaud the new dividend strategy believe that other moves are likely, including buy backs, given moderating financial leverage. Maintaining and growing the asset base remains the top priority, but a strong asset market and any extended stock price weakness could trigger a pivot away from acquisitions.Maintain Outperform rating and price target of $28/share. The recent successes include record operating results, a global refinancing and the shift to variable dividends. Plus, an expanded fleet positions GNK to capitalize on attractive, albeit volatile, dry bulk market fundamentals. Despite yesterday's 4% drop, stock has rebounded by ~17% in 1Q2022 after a drop of 21% in 4Q2021, and we believe that the current valuation and risk/reward profile remain very attractive. Read More >>