Goehring & Rozencwajg Q1 2025 Natural Resource Market Commentary

2025-05-23 08:00:00 ET

Summary

• Platinum and palladium are trading near multi-decade lows and most investors have moved on.
• But quietly, the drivers of a new bull market are gathering momentum: hybrid vehicle adoption, tightening emissions standards, falling mine supply, and a possible return of investment demand.
• In our new Q1 2025 commentary, The Hidden Revival of Platinum and Palladium, we explain why platinum group metals may be the most mispriced assets in the commodity complex—and why history may soon rhyme.

THE HIDDEN REVIVAL OF PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM

"Platinum Breaking Out on Surging Demand From China" Bloomberg, May 20th 2025

"BMW bets on petrol and sees rocky road to electrification... BMW has pledged to continue investing in combustion and hybrid technologies." Financial Times, Feburary 11, 2025

"South African miner Impala Platinum may close its Canadian palladium mine earlier than planned after prices for the metal used in gasoline vehicles have plummeted more 70% over the last three years." The Northern Miner, February 27, 2025

The time has come, we believe, to turn serious attention-and capital-towards the platinum group metals and their related equities. Over the past 18 months, a growing number of supply and demand signals have begun to flash in concert, suggesting that a long-overlooked corner of the commodity world may be on the cusp of making a significant bullish move.

We say this with some sense of historical symmetry. It has been a long while since we last held meaningful positions in the global PGM markets. In fact, one has to rewind the tape all the way back to the late 1990s and early 2000s to find us actively invested in the sector. For the curious (and the nostalgic), we've included a Barron's commodity column of ours dated January 15, 2000-in retrospect in was a great call.

The late '90s, of course, offered a classic setup: an obscure group of metals largely dismissed by the broader investment community, and a handful of public equities priced for irrelevance. It was precisely then that the opportunity proved greatest. Between their lows in the late 1990s and their highs just before the 2008 financial crisis, shares of South Africa's Rustenburg Platinum (now Anglo American Platinum , ANGPY ) and Impala Platinum ( IMPUY ) staged extraordinary bullish moves-rising, in dollar terms, by a factor of 30 and 60, respectively.

Today, we believe investors are once again being offered an opportunity that bears more than a passing resemblance to that earlier moment-one that, in time, could prove every bit as spectacular....

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