- Since IPO'ing in 2019 at ~US$12/sh in Canada, Lightspeed's shares have soared to a high of US$130/sh and has attained a $17 billion enterprise value and dual NYSE listing.
- However, prior to coming public we find a pattern of the company revising key metrics.
- Most concerning, we find evidence that the company restated key metrics such as customer counts and gross transaction volume (GTV). Evidence shows GTV per customer was in decline.
- Now after completing $2.5bn of acquisitions, the company restated its Total Addressable Market 80% lower from $113bn to $16bn.
- Shares are richly valued, with only 7% implied upside to sell-side analyst consensus targets. LSPD trades at 23x 2022E sales and 47x gross profit, despite negative margins. Most of its revenue growth appears inorganic. Revaluing shares at 6x-12x sales and 10x-18x gross profit gets us to 60%-80% downside risk.
For further details see:
Here's What We Think Investors Missed With Lightspeed Commerce's IPO: 60-80% Downside Risk