Introduction
One of the important reasons why I’ve taken the position that, left to its own devices (i.e., without the effects of reckless or pernicious government policies), the economy is headed towards a slowdown rather than a recession is that interest rates didn’t go high enough long enough to cause the housing market to turn down sufficiently to cause the economy as a whole to roll over.
Effects of the government shutdown on data
Before I proceed further, let me note that the partial government shutdown means that most of the important housing data is