- Hurricane Ida has forced Gulf of Mexico production and refineries to go offline.
- The impact so far has been mixed on crude balance, while petroleum product storages should see large draws.
- A sustained refinery outage would be similar to what happened in 2017 with Hurricane Harvey. Elevated refining margins going into Q4 will prompt higher throughput and a tailwind for crude.
- Given the current supply/demand fundamentals are already in a deficit, crude draws could increase into year-end pushing oil prices higher.
For further details see:
Hurricane Ida To Impact Products More Than Crude And Implications Going Forward