- Oil prices popped despite the announcement of a global coordinated SPR release of ~60 million bbls.
- WSJ reports traders, banks, and tanker companies are self-imposing sanctions on Russian oil making it difficult for Russia to export.
- We materially overlooked this fact, and the impact is likely to be significant. We don't know how much, but ~3.6 million b/d of tanker crude exports are at risk.
- With global inventories still declining and spare capacity running thin by this summer, the case for higher oil prices (from today) is getting stronger. Let's see how oil demand holds up throughout the next few months, and if it's anything like what we are seeing so far, buckle up.
For further details see:
IEA Announces Global Coordinated SPR Release, But Oil Pops As Russian Crude Export Outage Is More Meaningful