- Although Druzhba is an established supply route to Europe, the connected refineries could likely face disruptions if Europe avoids Russian oil or if the pipeline is shut down for any reason.
- Alternative supply routes are available through the Baltic Sea. The Plock, Schwedt, and Leuna refineries would have to rely on the Gdansk and Rostock ports, which could deliver about 740,000 b/d. But the situation would be very tight.
- Alternative supply routes are also available through the Adriatic Sea. The Adria and Transalpine (TAL) networks could provide supply relief to relevant refineries in Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Germany, and Czechia.
- There may be limitations to the transit capacity from Croatia to Hungary and Slovakia, but sustaining at least 75% utilization in Slovakia and Hungary should be feasible from a pipeline perspective.
For further details see:
Impact Of Russia-Ukraine Crisis On Full Shutdown Of Druzhba Pipeline Network To Europe