Impinj: Supply Chain Drama May Just Be Starting

2025-04-24 09:18:44 ET

Summary

• Impinj, Inc.'s strong results and guidance caused a 15% share price surge, but I remain cautious due to its 25x forward EBITDA and negative growth rates.
• Despite being debt-free, Impinj's valuation at 54x next year's EBITDA is unappealing, and I predict a challenging path back to $160 per share.
• Impinj's revenue growth is volatile and cyclical, with Q2 2025 guidance indicating further negative growth, making its 25x forward EBITDA valuation for PI stock hard to justify.
• Given macro uncertainty, shifting customer inventory patterns, and choppy top-line trends, I remain neutral on Impinj until I see more stability in its growth and pricing.

Investment Thesis

Impinj, Inc. ( PI ) delivered a strong set of results and, more importantly, its guidance for Q2 2025 was reassuring , causing its share price to soar more than 15% after hours....

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