Perhaps one particularly surprising thing this year has been the lack of surprise - that is, upside surprise in inflation. Last year, central banks around the world were hiking interest rates and beginning to normalize balance sheets, as sights were set squarely on upside risks to inflation. But the inflation surprise indices show a clear drift to the downside.
Today's chart comes from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report, which talked about some of the reasons or drivers behind the global policy pivot theme that I've been talking about since the start of the