The 2020s will produce important new trends in the global markets which this letter will explore. The new investment themes for the 2020s are:
- Rising rates will hurt bond performance
- Energy stocks will rebound
- Commodity prices will rise
- Emerging market outperformance will resume
- The New Cold War: China, Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela
- S&P 5905 and Irrational Exuberance
1. Bonds won't be investment winners
Since 1982, interest rates have been declining. In August 2019, when total international negative interest rate debt peaked at $17 trillion, the global trend in declining rates ended.
- Investment portfolios