- COVID is not over, but the situation for the many vaccine developers late to the party (including Novavax) is unclear.
- There is significant ambiguity about what actual demand for the Novavax vaccine is; I don’t see ~2 billion doses as firm commitments.
- Gavi/COVAX was seen to be a 1.1 billion dose market for Novavax, but this appears to be disappearing.
- Adverse events for Novavax vaccine may be similar to those for mRNA vaccines.
- Novavax’s 2022 guidance of $4-$5 billion revenue looks problematic.
For further details see:
Is Novavax Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Recent Earnings?