- The Fed has decided to go from super-easy money to quickly tightening monetary policy, which is causing a spike in Treasury yields that looks dangerous to me.
- Treasury yields have nearly doubled since the Omicron panic in late November, touching 2.73% on Friday. They are flirting with a 40-year downtrend, and rising above 3.25% would mark that spot - as rates have never before (in the past 40 years) risen past the high of a prior tightening cycle.
- The longer the conflict in Ukraine drags on, the worse it is for the euro, and the more pressure it puts on the dollar with interest rate differentials increasing in favor of the greenback. One trade that few, if any, saw coming was the massive rally in the Russian ruble over the last month.
For further details see:
Is The Fed In 'Panic' Mode?