2024-07-09 11:00:00 ET
Summary
- Recession risk has risen, but it’s still premature to confidently declare that a downturn has started.
- Conditions could deteriorate in the weeks ahead, but for the moment, slow/sluggish growth appears to be the odds-on favorite for the near-term outlook.
- Aggregating several business cycle benchmarks and estimating the implied recession-risk probability reflects a modestly higher but still low likelihood that an economic contraction has started or is imminent.
Judging by the analysis in some circles, a recession is a foregone conclusion. More cautious types argue that the expansion continues, but just barely, and that a formal recession will likely start at some point in the next several months. As usual, it's impossible to fully discount any given forecast. But a review of a broad range of economic and financial data still leaves room for debate. Yes, macro risk is rising for the US, but the economy has not yet reached the tipping point....
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Is The U.S. Economy Flirting With Recession?