This piece is a sequel to our July 20 Seeking Alpha article (It's Still July, So Equities Are Still Rallying; August-September Will Be Calamitous, However). The July 20 piece discussed the possibility of a market sell-off in August which should be primed by systemic liquidity seasonality flows and seasonality in the historical performance of equity markets.
The market verdict on the July 20 forecast for August markets, so far
We used the historical seasonality of the Fed's SOMA transactions (balance sheet) and current liquidity flows data, as applied to the equity indices,