A recession is coming… We cannot predict its exact timing, but what we know is that:
- Recessions generally occur every 5-10 years.
- When unemployment rates hit 4-5% figures.
- And when the yield curve becomes inverted.
Each of these factors combined together is a powerful signal that has accurately predicted recessions in the past. Today, we are 11 years into the expansion, unemployment is below 4% for the first time since 1969, and the yield curve recently inverted.
At the same time, investors are rightfully concerned because most major asset classes appear richly priced even as