By Dennis Coyne
Many different oil shock model scenarios have been presented over time at Peak Oil Barrel. Information on the Oil Shock Model, originally developed by Paul Pukite can be found in Mathematical Geoenergy. The future is unknown, so future extraction rates from conventional (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) oil-producing reserves are unknown. Also not known are future oil prices, which will affect the amount of tight oil and extra heavy oil that is ultimately produced.
For tight oil, I have created three scenarios corresponding to a low, medium, and high