My forecast for February is that the West Texas Intermediate oil price will range between $50 and $60 per barrel. The lower end of the range is $5 higher than last month's forecast.
As outlined by John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst for Reuters, there are five central elements when considering oil prices for the next several months:
- Global economy
- US shale production growth
- OPEC+ output reductions
- US sanctions on Iran
- US sanctions on Venezuela
I will provide a cursory comment on each item.
The outcome of the US-China trade dispute will drive global growth. If