At the OPEC+ press conference on December 6th, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman claimed that the 500,000 b/d production cut was “fresh barrels” and that he was not “fiddling with the numbers.” But a country-by-country analysis shows the cuts adding to 350,000 b/d, if there is 100 percent compliance with the 2018 agreement and the new agreement. Setting aside doubtful adjustments, the numbers imply a gain of 42,000 b/d from November’s production.
The Calculations
OPEC released the original benchmarks and cuts for 2019, according to the table below:
OPEC subsequently (December