2023-11-07 15:01:37 ET
Summary
- Palantir became my top portfolio holding due to its potential to make businesses and agencies more efficient, which should lead to increased demand and a higher stock price.
- The stock has been range-bound for around six months. Yet, we could see a breakout due to improving technical, fundamental, and psychological factors soon.
- Palantir reported strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates and increasing guidance, indicating continued growth and profitability expansion.
- Due to its dominant market-leading position, Palantir's stock could go significantly higher in future years.
Palantir ( PLTR ) became my top portfolio holding in Q1 2023 because I believe in the company and its intended mission. Every government organization and private enterprise can benefit from implementing Palantir's solutions, as Palantir can make almost any business or agency more efficient. Contrary to some beliefs, Palantir does not provide a niche product, and its software will likely become increasingly widespread. Moreover, Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform ("AIP") enables the company to leverage the power of AI. This dynamic should lead to faster-than-expected sales growth, higher-than-anticipated profitability, and a substantially higher stock price in future years.
PLTR 1-Year Chart
PLTR (StockCharts.com)
While Palantir's stock skyrocketed, tripling in the first half of the year, the share price has moved sideways recently. The stock has been range-bound in the $14-$18 field for months. However, Palantir could soon break out due to improving technical, fundamental, and psychological factors. The sentiment was mixed while Palantir went through the six-month consolidation phase. Yet, sentiment should improve as Palantir continues benefiting from its leading position in AI, its financials continue expanding, and its outlook brightens in future quarters and years.
Why Palantir Skyrocketed
Palantir recently reported better-than-anticipated earnings , providing a more robust outlook, especially in its commercial business side. Palantir's stock skyrocketed by 20% because its growth outlook was excellent (even better than expected). Moreover, many analysts and other market participants may still be lowballing Palantir's projections.
Due to its market-leading, monopolistic style position and unique product/service offering, Palantir can continue benefiting and beating consensus estimate figures for a long time. AIP has (essentially) unlimited growth potential, and the market is slowly starting to recognize this bullish dynamic and should continue pricing it into Palantir's stock.
Palantir's Stellar Earnings Announcement
Palantir reported Q3 earnings recently, beating on top and bottom lines and increasing guidance. Palantir reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 , one cent ahead of estimates. Moreover, Palantir's revenues came in at $558 million , two million ahead of estimates, illustrating a 16.8% YoY sales growth rate. Furthermore, Palantir increased its full-year revenue and profitability guidance, announcing better-than-expected guidance for Q4.
The Highlights
Q3 Highlights (static.seekingalpha.com)
Palantir reported its fourth straight quarter of GAAP profitability. Only this time, GAAP EPS jumped to three cents. U.S. commercial revenue surged by 33% YoY to $116M . Moreover, the U.S. commercial customer count increased by 37%, illustrating robust demand for Palantir's products and services. Its adjusted operating margin increased for the fourth consecutive quarter to 29%. This dynamic demonstrates that Palantir is becoming more efficient and should continue becoming more profitable with scale.
Unlimited Commercial Potential
Palantir's U.S. commercial customer count has exploded by 10x in the last three years. We see more and more U.S. enterprises adopting Palantir's services, and the growth should continue as we move on. U.S. commercial revenue and customer count increased by 33% and 37% YoY, respectively.
Revenue growth (static.seekingalpha.com )
Total commercial revenue growth increased by 23%. While Europe and other areas lag the U.S. in growth, we could see other regions play catch-up, thus contributing to robust international growth in the future. While government revenue increased by 12%, U.S. government growth was 10%. Therefore, we see increased global demand from governments, suggesting significant government growth from abroad should continue.
Despite Palantir's skyrocketing growth, it still services a relatively small percentage of global enterprises, implying Palantir's products and services should experience robust demand for many years moving forward. Furthermore, many analysts could be too conservative regarding Palantir's prospects, and Palantir's sales growth and profitability should continue outpacing consensus figures in the long run.
Growth and Earnings to Continue Improving
Revenue growth (SeekingAlpha.com )
Consensus estimates imply that a re-acceleration in revenue growth is approaching. Yet, we could see a return to a 25-30% annual growth rate in the next few years. Likewise, we see expectations for double-digit EPS growth, but the estimates may be low here.
Palantir to Continue Beating Forecasts
EPS vs. estimates (SeekingAlpha.com )
Palantir continues to surpass estimates despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Palantir has reported 21 cents in EPS in its TTM, illustrating a beat rate of about 17%. Consensus estimates are for 25 cents in EPS next year. However, applying a modest 15% beat rate suggests Palantir could report around 33 cents in EPS next year. This dynamic implies that Palantir is trading around 54 times forward EPS estimates here.
However, Palantir could report substantially better than expected EPS growth due to higher sales growth and increasing profitability, especially in its commercial segment in future years. Therefore, Palantir seems relatively cheap now, and its share price could go much higher as we advance.
Where Palantir's stock could be in future years:
Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
Revenue Bs | $2.85 | $3.6 | $4.5 | $5.6 | $6.9 | $8.4 | $10 |
Revenue growth | 28% | 26% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 22% | 21% |
EPS | $0.33 | $0.43 | $0.55 | $0.70 | $0.88 | $1.10 | $1.36 |
EPS growth | 27% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 24% |
Forward P/E | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 50 |
Stock price | $24 | $30 | $37 | $46 | $57 | $70 | $88 |
Source: The Financial Prophet
Note: These are "base case" estimates. Higher-end estimates could lead to more significant revenue growth, more substantial profitability growth, and a higher stock price.
Risks to Palantir
Despite my bullish outlook, Palantir faces certain risks. There is the risk of increased competition, and Palantir is not immune from a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. Moreover, demand could be worse than anticipated for Palantir's products and services, including AIP. Palantir's growth may not be as substantial as I envisioned, and its profitability growth may be slower than my model suggests. Investors should consider these and other risks before investing in Palantir's stock.
For further details see:
Palantir: Remains My Top AI Holding